Life

[Laudate_Dominum]

A recent supercomputer simulation in Germany brought the rough estimate on the number of galaxies in the universe up to 500 billion. Based on the Drake equation, with our current level of scientific understanding, along with reasonable estimates and conservative assumptions for the many gaps, it is suggested that [b]there are more than 200 civilizations in our galaxy alone at this moment[/b]. Naturally, this means that there may be about [b]one hundred trillion civilizations in the universe[/b] at any given time. Sadly, the Drake equation suggests that of the civilizations in our galaxy less than three are likely to be communicative civilizations, which means that SETI may be listening to static for a very long time.

Before anyone jumps in with "you can't possibly say...", "your extrapolation is cr[s][/s]ap", kind of stuff, be warned: these types of speculations are not intended to be actual predictions or scientific claims. They are mostly meant to be fun topics of discussion and thought stimulants.

Wouldn't it be neat if -- as suggested by one elaborate computer simulation which made use of available scientific data and accounted for the big unknowns with plausible but essentially unfounded guesses -- there were in fact hundreds of quintillions of potentially habitable planets out there in the cosmos?

That's basically how I approach this topic. I read things from a "wouldn't it be neat if..." point of view, don't worry.

How about them exoplanets? Pretty sweeeeet. It'll be neat when (replace "when" with "if" if you're one of those butthats) technology advances to the point where we can observe "class M" planets in our little neighborhood of the galaxy. Given the 450 or so exoplanets that we've discovered so far there must be tons of fascinating planets out there (if you're a butthat replace "there must be" with "there might be" and add a "who knows?" in there some place).

Space is sweeeeeet.

[Resurrexi]

[quote name='Laudate_Dominum' date='04 June 2010 - 03:26 AM' timestamp='1275639972' post='2123551']
A recent supercomputer simulation in Germany brought the rough estimate on the number of galaxies in the universe up to 500 billion. Based on the Drake equation, with our current level of scientific understanding, along with reasonable estimates and conservative assumptions for the many gaps, it is suggested that there are more than 200 civilizations in our galaxy alone at this moment. Naturally, this means that there may be about one hundred trillion civilizations in the universe at any given time. Sadly, the Drake equation suggests that of the civilizations in our galaxy less than three are likely to be communicative civilizations, which means that SETI may be listening to static for a very long time.

Before anyone jumps in with "you can't possibly say...", "your extrapolation is cr[s][/s]ap", kind of stuff, be warned: these types of speculations are not intended to be actual predictions or scientific claims. They are mostly meant to be fun topics of discussion and thought stimulants.

Wouldn't it be neat if -- as suggested by one elaborate computer simulation which made use of available scientific data and accounted for the big unknowns with plausible but essentially unfounded guesses -- there were in fact hundreds of trillions of habitable planets out there in the cosmos?

That's basically how I approach this topic. I read things from a "wouldn't it be neat if..." point of view.
[/quote]


tl;dr.

[Laudate_Dominum]

[quote name='Resurrexi' date='04 June 2010 - 04:29 AM' timestamp='1275640145' post='2123552']
tl;dr.
[/quote]
If it's longer than a facebook status or a tweet it's tl;dr. Is that the culture of today? Or should I take that tl;dr personally? StThomasMore!! Saw an old post of yours in which you were a radical geocentrist.

[Resurrexi]

[quote name='Laudate_Dominum' date='04 June 2010 - 03:38 AM' timestamp='1275640680' post='2123553']
If it's longer than a facebook status or a tweet it's tl;dr. Is that the culture of today? Or should I take that tl;dr personally? StThomasMore!! Saw an post of yours in which you were a radical geocentrist.
[/quote]

LOL.

[Laudate_Dominum]

Made that post a little longer just for you. Have fun not reading it. You're missing out on a lot. My wacky [i]etre-en-soi[/i] crying out in this vast, sterile world of artifice which thinly masks the final nihilism of our existence. tl;dr is as tl;dr does, mama always said.

[Catholic Fox]

I wouldn't be surprised if non-intelligent life would be discovered elsewhere.

[Laudate_Dominum]

[quote name='Laudate_Dominum' date='20 August 2006 - 02:07 PM' timestamp='1156097263' post='1046708']
Until some concrete phenomenon is observed which conclusively points to the existence of other life forms in our universe I don't believe there is sufficient information to reach a meaningful conclusion.[/quote]
Wrong again bucko! We may gather enough data about the stars and planets in our own region of the galaxy, and more data about the composition and dynamics of galaxies in general, coupled with a deep and highly verified understanding of abiogenesis, etc. Blah, blah. In other words, it is perfectly reasonable to suppose that in the future we may have the data and scientific understanding necessary to make meaningful statements about the probabilities of terrestrial pattern life in our galaxy and even the observable universe. Those meaningful statements might not be more than that the rare Earth hypothesis describes the most probable scenario, or perhaps that rare Earth is highly unlikely or even false, but still, direct observation of extraterrestrial life is not required to make of it a serious scientific prediction. It may be that the probability of extraterrestrial life is demonstrated to be so high that it could be effectively taken for granted. While I disagree, I must salute you, O me of four years ago! I salute myself from the fourth dimension -- and on into that ergodic infinity of universes...

[Laudate_Dominum]

[quote name='Laudate_Dominum' date='04 June 2010 - 04:48 AM' timestamp='1275641325' post='2123557']
Made that post a little longer just for you. Have fun not reading it. You're missing out on a lot. My wacky [i]etre-en-soi[/i] crying out in this vast, sterile world of artifice which thinly masks the final nihilism of our existence. tl;dr is as tl;dr does, mama always said.
[/quote]
You meant [i]pour[/i], not [i]en[/i], oh silly me of two hours ago. *salute

[Nihil Obstat]

A lot of people think that the Drake equation is pseudo-scientific bull.

[ardillacid]

[quote name='Laudate_Dominum' date='04 June 2010 - 04:26 AM' timestamp='1275639972' post='2123551']
A recent supercomputer simulation in Germany brought the rough estimate on the number of galaxies in the universe up to 500 billion. Based on the Drake equation, with our current level of scientific understanding, along with reasonable estimates and conservative assumptions for the many gaps, it is suggested that [b]there are more than 200 civilizations in our galaxy alone at this moment[/b]. Naturally, this means that there may be about [b]one hundred trillion civilizations in the universe[/b] at any given time. Sadly, the Drake equation suggests that of the civilizations in our galaxy less than three are likely to be communicative civilizations, which means that SETI may be listening to static for a very long time.

Before anyone jumps in with "you can't possibly say...", "your extrapolation is cr[s][/s]ap", kind of stuff, be warned: these types of speculations are not intended to be actual predictions or scientific claims. They are mostly meant to be fun topics of discussion and thought stimulants.

Wouldn't it be neat if -- as suggested by one elaborate computer simulation which made use of available scientific data and accounted for the big unknowns with plausible but essentially unfounded guesses -- there were in fact hundreds of quintillions of potentially habitable planets out there in the cosmos?

That's basically how I approach this topic. I read things from a "wouldn't it be neat if..." point of view, don't worry.

How about them exoplanets? Pretty sweeeeet. It'll be neat when (replace "when" with "if" if you're one of those butthats) technology advances to the point where we can observe "class M" planets in our little neighborhood of the galaxy. Given the 450 or so exoplanets that we've discovered so far there must be tons of fascinating planets out there (if you're a butthat replace "there must be" with "there might be" and add a "who knows?" in there some place).

Space is sweeeeeet.
[/quote]
Since we are 'stimulating thought', let's talk about the assumptions that Frank made when he fabricated his un-scientific equation.

Firstly, he supposes that all planets that are capable of producing life will do so. He assumes that capability equals inevitability, yet countless examples can be observed on a regular basis where this is not the case. Additionally, if you apply drake's equation to our solar system, it epic fails. Where is the 2nd planet in our solar system that has life? Is it Planet X? Finally, if the parameters Drake applied were remotely close to the true values, then we should have seen some evidence of life by now.

Edited June 4, 2010 by notardillacid

[ardillacid]

[quote name='Mark of the Cross' date='03 June 2010 - 06:22 PM' timestamp='1275603740' post='2123338']

BTW Notardilacid, I'm president, coach, councillor, treasurer, secretary, soothsayer of the of the L_D awesomeness fan club, so go eat your nuts!
[/quote]
Since you are unaware of the unique connexion between LD and myself, I will endeavor to lift the veil via an oversimplified analysis: LD is the exact opposite of me.

[ardillacid]

[quote name='Laudate_Dominum' date='04 June 2010 - 04:26 AM' timestamp='1275639972' post='2123551']
Before anyone jumps in with "you can't possibly say...", "your extrapolation is cr[s][/s]ap", kind of stuff, be warned: these types of speculations are not intended to be actual predictions or scientific claims. They are mostly meant to be fun topics of discussion and thought stimulants.
[/quote]


[quote name='Laudate_Dominum' date='04 June 2010 - 05:05 AM' timestamp='1275642348' post='2123562']
direct observation of extraterrestrial life is not required to make of it a serious scientific prediction.
[/quote]
Observation is part of the scientific process. Until you observe, you are merely playing statistics, which as we all know, is a highly organized way of lying or obfuscating the truth

[ardillacid]

[quote]To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry must be based on gathering [b]observable,empirical and measurable[/b] evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning.[/quote]

[ardillacid]

[quote name='Nihil Obstat' date='04 June 2010 - 12:20 PM' timestamp='1275668455' post='2123656']
A lot of people think that the Drake equation is pseudo-scientific bull.
[/quote]
I think you give it far too much credit by claiming it is even pseudo scientific.

[ardillacid]

[quote name='Laudate_Dominum' date='04 June 2010 - 04:38 AM' timestamp='1275640680' post='2123553']
If it's longer than a facebook status or a tweet it's tl;dr. Is that the culture of today? Or should I take that tl;dr personally? StThomasMore!! Saw an old post of yours in which you were a radical geocentrist.
[/quote]


[quote name='Resurrexi' date='04 June 2010 - 04:39 AM' timestamp='1275640772' post='2123555']
LOL.
[/quote]
I will bet ten alowishus dollars that he still is