full economic recovery!

[Lounge Daddy]

between the killer job market and the stock market
low unemployment despite a year of natural disaster and an entire city flooded
... now the stock market hit pre- 9/11 highs... [url="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EDJI"]LINK[/url]
how much of this will be heard on the liberal msm?

[Didacus]

Oil prices control a big part of the economy, and if past tendencies are accurate, the world is heading towards a recession due to high oil prices.

I wouldn't scream victory just yet.

[Philosopher]

Very impressive, I am happy to see this. I would also be willing to say a lot of this upswing is due to Bush's tax cuts. I am far from an economist, but a lot of jobs have been created in my area (North east Ohio) due to buisness' having more money.

[OLAM Dad]

[quote name='Didacus' date='Jan 10 2006, 06:28 AM']Oil prices control a big part of the economy, and if past tendencies are accurate, the world is heading towards a recession due to high oil prices.

I wouldn't scream victory just yet.
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You're making the mistake of assuming that high oil prices only have a negative impact on the economy. That is not the case. Just because they have a negative impact on your pocketbook doesn't mean that others aren't benefiting. In the long term our economy and security will benefit from high fossil fuel prices as well.

Edited January 10, 2006 by OLAM Dad

[Didacus]

[quote name='OLAM Dad' date='Jan 10 2006, 07:41 AM']You're making the mistake of assuming that high oil prices only have a negative impact on the economy.  That is not the case.  Just because they have a negative impact on your pocketbook doesn't mean that others aren't benefiting.  In the long term our economy and security will benefit from high fossil fuel prices as well.
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Those who vbenefit from high oil prices are 0.001% of the world population.

The price of everything is linked to high oil prices, from groceries, to movie tickets to shoes. All of the industrial horsepower dwells on the price of energy which is driven almost uniquely by oil prices.

I am uncertain where your logic fails due to lack of info, but I would strongly recommend you dig a little deeper into the inpact of oil on the world economy.

[OLAM Dad]

[quote name='Didacus' date='Jan 10 2006, 08:46 AM']Those who vbenefit from high oil prices are 0.001% of the world population.

The price of everything is linked to high oil prices, from groceries, to movie tickets to shoes.  All of the industrial horsepower dwells on the price of energy which is driven almost uniquely by oil prices.

I am uncertain where your logic fails due to lack of info, but I would strongly recommend you dig a little deeper into the inpact of oil on the world economy.
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Where did you get your .001% figure? Did you just make it up? It will be hard to have a fruitful discussion if we don't stick to facts and reduce the hyperbole and emotion.

You said that 'the price of everything is linked to high oil prices, from groceries, to movie tickets to shoes'. I don't doubt this, to an extent. However, you're elevating the impact of high oil prices way too much. At the end of 2001 the cost of crude oil was 1/3 of what it is today. The price of oil has tripled. Yet since then our economy has strengthened greatly and the inflation rate during that same time period has been below 3%. If oil prices had a large impact on the price of all goods as you claim, wouldn't the inflation rate, which measures the cost of goods, have risen greatly with the price of oil? It's not like the price of oil has recently spiked and it will just take time to see the results on the price of other goods.

I don't deny that the high price of oil has a short term negative impact on the economy, but even that is usually overstated grately by people based strictly on what they are paying at the pump and the emotions which bubble up as a result.

Long term, the high price of oil is a big benefit. The world is running out of oil. Not tomorrow, and not in our life times, but the end is inevitable. High oil prices make alternative energy sources more attractive today to consumers and to investors. Eventually, with enough investiment and research, these alternative sources will become less expensive and more available. As a result, we will rely less of foreign oil which is a boon for our economy and our security and the environment will benefit as well.

You suggest that I should dig deeper. I have worked in the energy industry, both domestically and internationally, for over 10 years. I went to high school in Singapore because my father spent many, many years in the energy industry as well. I'm not sure how much deeper I can dig.

[Didacus]

I would be interested in your comments concerning the reserves of oil world wide.

I know of some worrisome facts;

Ghawar seems (cannot be determined 100% because of hidden data) to be peaking or have peaked.

Cantarell is beginning a huge decline in production.

New oil wells are smaller and more expensive to develop.

How much oil comes from giant oil wells? Gather the 6 larget oil wells in the world (about) and determine how much oil is produced and which of these wells have peaked? Ghawar alone produces what is it? 12% of the world's oil?

It would seem to me that oil supply is shorter than you think.

No alternative, including nuclear fision, coal, natural gas (though this comes close), solar, wind ect... can come close in quality of energy source that oil is to our society.

Oil has countless uses as well as energy, spanny fertilizers to insecticides to plastics of all kinds.

Now enough about oil itself.



The economy is as good as the source of energy that supplies it.
Do you agree?



If not;

The transport system within the US is dependant on oil; anything delivered is thus linked to oil prices.

Food:
Most foods grown in the world today are grown in one manner or form with the help of oil; either to run the machinery, to fertilize the land or to affect perticides.

As oil prices raise, the price of food raises as well.

National outlook (US);
The US consumes over 20 milion barrels of oil each DAY. Of this, around 12 million barrels of oil are imported.

If the cost of oil thus increases by 1 dollar per barrel, the US economy suffers 12 million dollars of loss to its economy that day.

In a year, that one dollar will cost the US 4.38 billion dollars.

Increase in oil prices since 2001? 40$ per barrel
Increase strain in the US economy, per year due to that increase: 175 billion dollars per year.

Cost per year for Us citizens? over 400$ per citizen (average)
This 400$ is actually over 700$ if you factor into the cost per citizen all the US oil consumption. This is the additional strain on everyone's budget due to increase in oil prices.



You're right, 0.001% was more of a symbolic figure. You can argue arbitrary benefits from all kinds of point of view, but I was refering to those who actually own stocks in the energy sector; not specifically those who work there (an employee will have a pay increase proportional to the price of oil - I don't think so).

If you want to take this conversation to debate future prospects for oil's replacement, you'll need to show me something really wicked good to impress me. The only thing I found that could possibly compare to oil was nuclear fusion; and its over 50 years away from the most optimistic view points I've heard.

[Azriel]

Ok guys, remember this is Open Mic. Lets not get into a nasty debate.

Secondly, I wish there were some jobs in Michigan. Specifically in my area, where the loss of Delphi and GM are crushing us and our spirits.

Welcome to Flint, ya'll!

[Cow of Shame]

[quote name='Azriel' date='Jan 10 2006, 07:01 AM']Ok guys, remember this is Open Mic.  Lets not get into a nasty debate.
[/quote]

I've seen nothing nasty. Well, gas prices at the pump, certainly...

But this thread is civil & interesting.

[Sojourner]

I write about businesses quite a bit, and I can vouch for D's statement that high oil prices have a significant impact on businesses. Many of the business folks I've talked to are eating the cost increases that they've had to pay in things such as shipping and transport because they can't pass most of the cost along in higher prices.

Because a larger part of the business budget is eaten up by fuel and energy prices, there's less left over to re-invest in business expansion. High fuel prices means fewer new jobs in the long run.

[Sojourner]

[quote name='Azriel' date='Jan 10 2006, 11:01 AM']Secondly,  I wish there were some jobs in Michigan.  Specifically in my area, where the loss of Delphi and GM are crushing us and our spirits.
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Indiana is the same way. Lots of mid-size Indiana towns -- Muncie, Kokomo, Anderson, etc. -- were heavily dependent on manufacturing for jobs -- and those jobs paid well. But now they're going, going, gone and there are all sorts of problems with replacing them.

[Didacus]

What we are starting to notice in small towns is that since people are paying more for gas and toher goods, they are spending less going to restaurants and movies nad the likes. Small restaurants and business' have been feeling a huge pinch in the last year.

That is just my region, but I am certain if you ask around, the same can be observed in several places. Small business' like restaurants going under is like a canary in a bird cage warning of hard times to come; they are the first concrete signs of a coming recession.

[Azriel]

[quote name='Cow of Shame' date='Jan 10 2006, 09:08 AM']I've seen nothing nasty.  Well, gas prices at the pump, certainly...

But this thread is civil & interesting.
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Ah, but I didn't say it was nasty. I just don't want it to get there, which is where a lot of these discussions go. See, I'm all about getting along and silly stuff like that.

Heck as long as its civil and interesting, I'll even participate. You see, while I haven't said it out loud on the boards in a loooong time, I am a proponent of Democratic economic policy, and fully support Democrats for Life.

But I don't say it out loud very often. I don't like the beatings.

[Sojourner]

[quote name='Didacus' date='Jan 10 2006, 11:25 AM']What we are starting to notice in small towns is that since people are paying more for gas and toher goods, they are spending less going to restaurants and movies nad the likes.  Small restaurants and business' have been feeling a huge pinch in the last year. 

That is just my region, but I am certain if you ask around, the same can be observed in several places.  Small business' like restaurants going under is like a canary in a bird cage warning of hard times to come; they are the first concrete signs of a coming recession.
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That's exactly what I've been seeing here in Indianapolis with small businesses and, as you say, in small towns. And I totally agree with your assessment. My feelings about the economic future are not good.

It's not just gas and fuel prices that concern me ... health care costs and pensions are two other factors that even the big companies are sweating.

[Sojourner]

[quote name='Azriel' date='Jan 10 2006, 11:27 AM']Ah, but I didn't say it was nasty.  I just don't want it to get there, which is where a lot of these discussions go.  See, I'm all about getting along and silly stuff like that.

Heck as long as its civil and interesting, I'll even participate.  You see, while I haven't said it out loud on the boards in a loooong time, I am a proponent of Democratic economic policy, and fully support Democrats for Life. 

But I don't say it out loud very often.  I don't like the beatings.
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yay Democrats for Life!