Is China going to eat our lunch?

[Kilroy the Ninja]

I saw an interesting bit on Good Morning America this morning. It's a series about how China isn't as backwards as we think it is.

Now what I can't figure out is, was the media lying to us then, or are they now? The premise of the story is that even Chinese cabbage farmers in the remotest places in China have better cellphone coverage than we do (and that I do believe). And despite the fact that they don't have indoor plumbing, they may still have satelitte dishes (which this guy did).

They have over 100 cities with more than 1 million people living in them (we only have 9), and according to this story, one would be hard pressed to actually find a communist there.

Now, the story did say that the Chinese still do not have the freedoms of religion, press or speech and they are still not allowed to "gather" (they showed Chinese police harranging people to "move along" in Bejing), but that the Chinese are not as deprived as the very same mainstream media has led us to believe lo these many years.

Most of the products we are able to buy come from China. (Buying Made in USA is possible, but one must work to do it). With the money that the Chinese government has made they are now able to bring real take-over bids to the table for such American companies as IBM, Unocal and several others. We buy cheap plastic baubles from them, they own our major companies.

Now to be sure, I'm not commenting on the Chinese people themselves. I've nothing but the fondest respect for them. It's their government I'm concerned about.

Should we be legitimately concerned about China? Will their brand of communism win despite the obvious psuedo-capitalism they currently enjoy?

[Didacus]

China is already an economic force in the world, and it is the fastest growing economy in the world.

they even began stock pilling oil last year.

Their energy needs are growing so fast their industry cannot keep up, and they are a leading cause of energy prices (gas) being so high in the world today.

Their partnership with Japan is growing as well. and several giant ventures are in the works between Japan, china nad Russia, as well as Pakistan-China-India, but that second one is very very choppy.

They are moving ahead iwth a 10 year hydro project which is the biggest in world history.

I wouldn't say they are out to 'eat our lunch', their making a good lunch for themselves though. They are without a doubt the next to rise and perhaps attain the status of 'superpower' though.

The world of tomorrow will be very diffferent than the world of today, that is for certain. Especially if 1.3 billion people start to starve and decide to try to 'eat' someone else's lunch - they would form a beast none could control and the havoc would be cataclysmic for the world.

[hierochloe]

[quote name='Kilroy the Ninja' date='Sep 20 2005, 08:44 AM'] We buy cheap plastic baubles from them, ...
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That's a huge understatement.

Will be interesting to see what happens in China, especially with regard to how the wealth of their industry is distributed.

[Brother Adam]

Yes, you should be concerned about China. Very concerned.

[Myles Domini]

The greatest thing for Catholicism would be a 16th century style martyr mission to China. If you could only convert all the country dwellers living far from the central authority of Beijing boy o boy what a great thing that'd be for the future.

[Thy Geekdom Come]

Many writers and journalists called Soviet Russia a land of promise...because they were only shown certain things.

Fact is...those far-off cabbage farmers still don't live in freedom.

[infinitelord1]

[quote name='Didacus' date='Sep 20 2005, 09:01 AM']China is already an economic force in the world, and it is the fastest growing economy in the world.

they even began stock pilling oil last year.

Their energy needs are growing so fast their industry cannot keep up, and they are a leading cause of energy prices (gas) being so high in the world today.

Their partnership with Japan is growing as well. and several giant ventures are in the works between Japan, china nad Russia, as well as Pakistan-China-India, but that second one is very very choppy.

They are moving ahead iwth a 10 year hydro project which is the biggest in world history.

I wouldn't say they are out to 'eat our lunch', their making a good lunch for themselves though.  They are without a doubt the next to rise and perhaps attain the status of 'superpower' though.

The world of tomorrow will be very diffferent than the world of today, that is for certain.  Especially if 1.3 billion people start to starve and decide to try to 'eat' someone else's lunch - they would form a beast none could control and the havoc would be cataclysmic for the world.
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I wonder if this has anything to do with the biblical prophecy in revalations. about how the enemy will rise from the east or something in the apocolyptic days.

[Socrates]

[quote name='Kilroy the Ninja' date='Sep 20 2005, 08:44 AM']I Now what I can't figure out is, was the media lying to us then, or are they now?  The premise of the story is that even Chinese cabbage farmers in the remotest places in China have better cellphone coverage than we do (and that I do believe).  And despite the fact that they don't have indoor plumbing, they may still have satelitte dishes (which this guy did).
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I don't think it's really so much a matter of the media lying one way or the other. The fact is that after adopting economic capitalism and trading with the rest of the world, China is vastly increased its material wealth.
China is changing, but retains its totalitarian statist government. Modern Chinese "communism" is not actually communism in the classical Marxist sense. It is more an extreme nationalistic statism.

And it is hartd for western journalists to have the entire story about the state of a nation this huge.

Yes, China is a cause for concern, but only time will tell how this will all end.

[crusader1234]

China isn't as big a threat as it seems. I have an article from the National Post which explains it in detail, but China isn't really as huge a threat as some people think. Due to the communist government, they all invest their money offshore - so really the money is still in our hands.

[argent_paladin]

I agree with crusader. The threat is overrated. First, the economic numbers are not that reliable for two reasons: 1. the books are cooked, 2. the investments are centrally controlled, which results in good short-term growth. Second, the impending demographic crunch (the result of the one child policy) will mean that a huge aging population will rely on few workers to support it. Having one child means that you can work harder in the factory longer. But having one child means that there will be fewer workers supporting you in your old age.
I give China 50-50 odds of staying a single united country until 2050.

[Kilroy the Ninja]

[quote name='argent_paladin' date='Sep 21 2005, 01:03 AM']I agree with crusader. The threat is overrated. First, the economic numbers are not that reliable for two reasons: 1. the books are cooked, 2. the investments are centrally  controlled, which results in good short-term growth. Second, the impending demographic crunch (the result of the one child policy) will mean that a huge aging population will rely on few workers to support it. Having one child means that you can work harder in the factory longer. But having one child means that there will be fewer workers supporting you in your old age.
I give China 50-50 odds of staying a single united country until 2050.
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I hope you are correct.

[argent_paladin]

[quote name='Kilroy the Ninja' date='Sep 21 2005, 01:49 AM']I hope you are correct.
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Well, it will not be good if China erupts in civil war and if its economy collapses. So, I hope I am wrong. This is a great article on the topic:
[url="http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/04/27/1082831567394.html"]http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/04/...2831567394.html[/url]

[StatingTheObvious]

Oh yeah. What is the rest of the world going to do without the 'Made in China' Niagra Falls cups, the cheap inflatible pool toys, and the fake 'Live Strong' bracelets. We'll fall faster than the walls of Jericho and harder than the Mayan civilization.

[Didacus]

[quote name='argent_paladin' date='Sep 21 2005, 05:43 AM']Well, it will not be good if China erupts in civil war and if its economy collapses. So, I hope I am wrong. This is a great article on the topic:
[url="http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/04/27/1082831567394.html"]http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/04/...2831567394.html[/url]
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I strongly doubt the 400 million chinese will start a civil war in their old age. It will be the 1 billion others (by then, pop.1.4 billion?) who will start something, and there is no guarantee it will be internal.

China has performed millitary exercises with Russia just a few months ago, the first in a long time if ever. They have been the most agreessive in securing oil ressources around the world, challenging bids from the US, UK and Japan almost everywhere, especially in Venezuella who full heartidly welcomed a new buyer at their table.

If they run out of ressources, does not mean they'll roll over, it might mean they'll go where they have to, the way they need to in roder to get it.

The US is ahead, for now, is one the biggest race since the arms-race, the race for world ressources who are growing scarce.

[Lounge Daddy]

[quote name='crusader1234' date='Sep 20 2005, 07:21 PM']China isn't as big a threat as it seems.  I have an article from the National Post which explains it in detail, but China isn't really as huge a threat as some people think.  Due to the communist government, they all invest their money offshore - so really the money is still in our hands.
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oh i am not so sure

China: 15 years ago – a threat of one submarine, it was a rusty diesel fuel thing that was never used in very deep water for fear it would sink
China: today – military budget of 80 billion dollars. And they can afford this easily because they are sitting on a trillion cash at the very least!

China is our biggest market – the low prices we pay China keeps our cost of living down --- China, then, uses much this cash to buy our bonds which helps keep our interest rates low
Economically we have a huge dependency on China – and they know it

What happens when (not if) they decide they don’t need us anymore?
The economic rug gets pulled out from under us.

China’s government is the one that recently told the US ambassador to that government point blank – they view the past 500 year renaissance in the west as a huge mistake and they intend to fix it.
Keep in mind that this is the same Chinese government in place at the time of the student protest in Tiananmen Square in 1986. They really don’t care for democracy.

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Here is the thing – China has been building up to invade a sworn alley of the USA, and they expect us to respond --- and really, we have to.
They are currently joining their HUGE military with Russia (our old friends, right …cough) and this is happening RIGHT NOW.
This – in my opinion - is the first front of the big formula for disaster