Catholic Vote May Tip Scales For Bush

[cappie]

“Catholic vote may tip scales for Bush,” research group claims

VENTURA, USA, Sep. 29, 2004 (CNA) - A recent survey carried out by the Ventura-based Barna Group shows that a “seismic shift” in the Catholic vote in favor of President George W. Bush may end up having a decisive role in the upcoming elections.

According to the Barna Group, which since 1984 has been conducting and analyzing cultural trends related to values and beliefs, “one of the big stories of the campaign is the seismic shift in preference among Catholic voters. Almost one out of every four likely voters (23%) is Catholic.”

The group reveals that in May, John Kerry held a small lead over President Bush, 48% to 43%. In the ensuing four months, however, “a myriad of events have stimulated a reversal among Catholics.”

“Currently, President Bush holds a commanding 53% to 36% lead over the Massachusetts Senator among Catholics who are likely to vote. That represents a 22-point shift in preference in just four months.”

“Equally surprising -the report says, - among Protestants who are likely to vote in November, President Bush has seen his 24-point lead over the challenger cut in half at the same time that his fortunes have reversed among Catholics. Since May, Mr. Kerry has picked up a small degree of support among Protestants (from 35% up to 38%) while President Bush has lost significant ground among Protestants (dropping from 59% to 50%). In total, that’s a 12-point drop in support for the President.”

According to the Barna study, “the significance of the faith factor cannot be overlooked in Campaign 2004. President Bush’s strongest support comes from evangelical Christians who are likely to vote: 90% of them plan to vote for the incumbent while only 2% plan to support Mr. Kerry. Non-evangelical born again Christians, who constitute about two-fifths of the likely voters, also strongly favor Mr. Bush (54% to 36%). Together, all born again Christians (evangelical and non-evangelical combined) are estimated to provide about half of the votes cast in November.”

Besides the support President Bush draws from the Christian community, the Barna survey also pointed out other significant results related to faith. Among those findings were:

· People who had read from the Bible during the past seven days, other than at church, are more likely to vote. They are also more likely to support President Bush (42% vs. 31% for Mr. Kerry).

· People who had attended a church worship service during the past seven days are more likely to vote. They are also more likely to support President Bush (47% compared to 26% of church attenders who back Mr. Kerry).

· People who had discussed a moral issue with someone during the past seven days are both more likely to vote and more likely to support President Bush (41% vs. 34%).

· People who had turned off a television program they were watching during the past seven days because of the morals and values it presented are both more likely to vote and more likely to support President Bush (45% vs. 29%).

The outcome of November’s election is in the hands of Christians, according to George Barna, the survey director. “Given the higher propensity to turnout on November 2 among evangelical and born again Christians, and their margin of preference for Mr. Bush, simply maintaining his support among those segments and among Catholics, and receiving a proportional split among the undecided will win Mr. Bush a second term in the White House.”

Asked to explain the reason for the rapid shift in support from Mr. Kerry to Mr. Bush during the summer months, Barna indicated that it was the result of a comprehensive consideration of each candidate. “That swing is attributable to an encompassing assessment by many Catholics of the leadership abilities, character, and policy stands of both men. We found that party identification and other matters had little to do with the reassessment of both candidates. Many of the Catholics now behind Mr. Bush have traditionally voted Democratic, but have chosen a different course this time around.”

However, Barna cautioned observers to remember that much can happen in the remaining five weeks of the campaign.

[musturde]

YAY

[dUSt]

I think it has a lot to do with the fact that more and more leaders in the church are clarifying the church's teaching on abortion, and making it the central issue.

Or, I hope this is the reason.

[Guest Aluigi]

personally, i think it's because of PhatMass

[MagiDragon]

[quote]among Protestants who are likely to vote in November, President Bush has seen his 24-point lead over the challenger cut in half at the same time that his fortunes have reversed among Catholics. Since May, Mr. Kerry has picked up a small degree of support among Protestants (from 35% up to 38%) while President Bush has lost significant ground among Protestants (dropping from 59% to 50%). In total, that’s a 12-point drop in support for the President.”[/quote]

hmmmm . . . this worries me. why are the Prots leaving Bush? Any ideas?

Peace.

[Ash Wednesday]

I think the other non-negotiables also make a lot of Catholics nervous, too -- like the gay marriage, cloning and stem cell research issues. With the next president selecting supreme court justices, I would hope that even less-than-informed and somewhat indifferent Catholics consider this and want to see a line drawn somewhere.

A couple of interesting factors were mentioned in an article I read online:
[url="http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/frontpage/index.ssf?/base/news-2/1092657301240360.xml"]http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/frontpage/ind...57301240360.xml[/url]

Regarding Kerry:
[quote]Moreover, under a voluntary agreement that United States bishops reached earlier this summer, Kerry is not welcome to make a campaign appearance at a Catholic university, hospital or other setting, owing to his position in support of abortion. [/quote]

Regarding Bush:
[quote]Bush, by contrast, enjoys a tactical advantage.

Although Catholic bishops believe that his economic policies do not reflect the church's regard for the poor, they have decided that abortion and the life issues are of paramount importance. Thus Bush was able to address the Knights of Columbus, and receive a standing ovation, with two Catholic cardinals with him at the head table. [/quote]

This article was from last month and Kerry's support with the public has waned since then.

[Ash Wednesday]

[quote name='MagiDragon' date='Sep 29 2004, 07:06 PM'] hmmmm . . . this worries me.  why are the Prots leaving Bush?  Any ideas?

Peace. [/quote]

You'll notice they don't place Baptists and Fundamentalists in the same category as "Protestants", so that's probably why it would seem that way. Catholics, we consider them all "protestant" for the most part. But the article makes a distinction and refers to these groups as "protestant" and "fundamentalist."

I don't intend disrespect here, but I think generally the more liberal Christians in the U.S. are members of denominations traditionally "protestant" like Lutherans and Episcopals. A lot of those churches have taken a more progressive direction, for example, with female clergy and homosexuals, and their members are more likely to vote for a more liberal candidate. Even Bush is at odds with the direction of the Methodist church he's currently a member of.

A lot of the born again fundamentalists are more likely to vote right-wing, conservative.
Generally Christians that would otherwise be "protestant" according to this article (raised Lutheran, Episcopal, etc.) but are not comfortable with the liberal Christianity of their churches join more of the Baptist/Born Again hard line fundamentalists. (Or, because of Scott Hahn and phatmassers, become Catholics.)

[franciscanheart]

woot W'04

[azaelia]

[quote name='hugheyforlife' date='Sep 29 2004, 08:35 PM'] woot W'04 [/quote]

[ilovechrist]

YAY!!!!!!!!!

i'm so glad to see those stats rising!

[Sinner]

W

[StMichael]

I've mentioned it here before that Gov. Jeb Bush has converted to Catholicism and that President Bush, once out of office will be doing the same.

[Thy Geekdom Come]

The scales already are for Bush, lol...

[Piccoli Fiori JMJ]

[quote name='Aluigi' date='Sep 29 2004, 07:04 PM'] personally, i think it's because of PhatMass [/quote]
mwah ha ha ha!

[Piccoli Fiori JMJ]

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