Some Statistical And Game Theoretic Aspects Of The Papal Election

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Nate Silver is my own personal Jesus when it comes to statistical analysis.  I think he's fantastic.  His blog ran some interesting articles on the voting behaviors exhibited during the conclave that you all might find interesting.  

 

 

For Cardinals, Advantages in Choosing an Older Pope:

The selection of Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina as the new pope, Francis, was largely unexpected by betting markets and Vatican experts, in part because of his advanced age. Cardinal Bergoglio, 76, is probably the ninth oldest of the 266 popes at the time of his election, accounting for some uncertainty because the age of many early popes remains unknown.

As a matter of actuarial science, Francis is not likely to have an especially long tenure. The nine previous men who were known to be 75 or older at the time of their election to the papacy served for an average of only five years.

That may be too pessimistic an estimate in the case of Francis: it is based on a small sample size and does not account for modern improvements in health and medical science. Acknowledging that there are considerable lifestyle differences between an Argentinian pope and an average American citizen, the life expectancy for a 76-year-old American man is now about 10 additional years. Of course, Francis could follow Benedict XVI’s precedent by resigning the papacy before his death. It is probably safe to say that a tenure shorter than five years would be considered brief for Francis, while a regime of much more than 10 years might be unexpectedly long.

The cardinals who elected Cardinal Bergoglio are probably not looking up actuarial tables, but they presumably have some intuition about how long his papacy might last. So one question is whether they saw his advanced age as a liability — or an asset.

Read more:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/13/for-cardinals-advantages-in-choosing-an-older-pope/

 

 

In Papal Elections, Are Long Shots the Rule? By DAVID LEONHARDT

“Go in a pope, come out a cardinal.”

The selection of Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina, who did not appear on various preconclave lists of likely popes, seemed to confirm that old line about papal selection. “The chances of being elected pope decreases in proportion to the number of times he is described papabile in the press,” George Weigel, a Vatican expert, told CNN in 2005. Mr Weigel refers to the pattern as the Pignedoli Principle, after Cardinal Sergio Pignedoli, a much-discussed candidate who was not chosen as pope in 1978.

The Pignedolis of 2013 were Cardinal Angelo Scola, of Italy; Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer, of Brazil; and Cardinal Peter Turkson, of Ghana, the favorites of oddsmakers and some experts. In the wake of the selection of Cardinal Bergoglio – Pope Francis – you can expect to hear more about “Go in a pope, come out a cardinal.”

But is it actually a useful guide to conclaves? Probably not.

Read More:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/13/in-papal-elections-are-long-shots-the-rule/

 

 

Election of a Pope Tests Betting Markets By DAVID LEONHARDT

Intrade may have shut down, but the election of a pope still offers a good chance to study the predictive value of betting odds. Eight years ago, when Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger ascended to St. Peter’s throne, the oddsmakers looked prescient: he was the favorite, or a co-favorite, in several places. Thirty-five years ago, the bookies – and, by extension, the wisdom of crowds – did much less well: Cardinal Karol Jozef WojtyÅ‚a, soon to become Pope John Paul II, was nowhere among the favorites.

This time, the favorite is Angelo Scola, the archbishop of Milan, as he was when we last checked in with the betting markets on March 4. A 71-year-old Italian with an intellectual bent, Cardinal Scola has a chance of between 25 percent and 33 percent of being elected, according to various oddsmakers.

But after Cardinal Scola the oddsmakers’ choices have shifted a bit. Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer, of Brazil, who was in ninth place with just 6 percent odds a week ago, is now just behind Scola, with a 22 percent chance, based on the odds at Paddy Power on Tuesday nigh

Read More:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/12/election-of-a-pope-tests-betting-markets/

 

 

What Betting Markets Are Saying About the Next Pope By MICAH COHEN

In Vatican City on Monday, the College of Cardinals will gather to decide on when to hold the papal conclave to select the next pope. There are no polls of the 115 cardinals who will vote in the conclave, and FiveThirtyEight is not making any predictions. But plenty of others are — notably, bookies and bettors.

Betting on the papal succession goes back centuries. In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV forbade Catholics from betting on the election of a pope or the length of a pope’s term in office. According to Dr. Edward N. Peters, canonist at Sacred Heart Major Seminary in Detroit, however, Gregory’s edict was part of an older system of canon law that was abrogated in 1918 (which is not to say the Catholic Church would now recommend wagering on the next pope).

During the last conclave, in 2005, the oddsmakers did well. One day before Joseph Aloisius Ratzinger became Pope Benedict XVI, Frank Delaney, an Irish novelist and journalist, wrote in The New York Times, “if the smart money is telling it right, the next pope will be one of the following three men” — Joseph Ratzinger, Carlo Martini or Jean-Marie Lustiger.

Read More:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/04/what-betting-markets-are-saying-about-the-next-pope/